Exposure Time With Market Timing

One with the most difficult tasks that traders have is determining the correct quantity of risk exposure when entering a trade. Since every trade must be accompanied by a protective stop-loss order, the question always is dependant on “how much room should I let the market to move against me just before stopped out?”

Some traders count on previous support and resistance levels to be a place to place their stops. However, often these areas are gunned for because floor traders be aware that there are plenty of orders waiting there for your taking.

Some traders will draw lines below or over sloping trends and employ that being a stop-loss reference, often expecting the target continue achievable pattern. But then, present do we identify that pattern get violated right if we discover it’s there?

Others make use of some percentage value, either according to some fixed profit expectation or perhaps a percentage of funds available, to view their initial stop-loss.

There are numerous different ways to picking a stop-loss. My personal preference and what I believe for being the best approach usually is to use the expected and confirmed swing price.

What do I mean by ‘expected and confirmed’ swing price?

As of 2019, it’s been 30 years that I have centered on the science and mathematics of market behavior. More specifically, forecasting market swings (aka turns) ahead of time. This approach has a firm comprehension of several ways of forecasting, such as popular and well-exposed techniques involving Fibonacci and Gann ratios, to call just two. There are so many more!

By learning and applying various market timing techniques that can expose the actual cyclic behavior with the markets, the trader might use this information to ‘shorten the danger exposure’ from a given trade.

Here is the place where this works.

Suppose via using some proven technique of determining high-probability market turns you get through the expectation that the swing bottom is tremendously likely to appear in the next day or two (with the very latest). Your way is usually 80% or better in accuracy, so that you do not have to be worried about whether it will likely be on time (say tomorrow), or one day late (in the morning).

The reason behind this is that, as you are already know using a high level of certainty from the probability to the swing bottom, you only place your ‘buy stop’ order for admittance to go long just higher than the high price with the day you expect the swing to take place. If the order is triggered, you immediately place your stop-loss just under the low of this same bar because doing so just ‘confirmed’ like a swing bottom. Your initial risk exposure will be the range of these swing bottom price bar. The probability that it’ll hold rather than get you knocked out using a loss is quite low when you knew with high-probability which the swing bottom was going to take place on that day for starters.

Now suppose how the swing bottom is going for being one bar late as earlier stated as is possible. In that case, your buy-stop has not been triggered and you’ll do the same routine in the morning for the one-day late bar. Same rules apply.

The real trick, once you’re in your trade, will likely be on managing the trade and adjusting your stop-loss because your position moves deeper and deeper into profit territory. That is a totally subject for a completely article. But with the subject in front of you, discovering the right time and price to wear your initial stop-loss order where it really is not too small or too large isn’t just also important, but it really can save you a lot of cash, help you stay in more trades, and stop you out of trades you later are glad about.